Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Commercial Delinquencies To Soar: Fitch

Fitch Ratings has a report out this morning titled, 'Is This The Calm Before the Storm for U.S. CMBS Delinquencies?' "Although CMBS delinquencies declined slightly in October, next month's levels will likely feel the effects of hurricane-related delinquencies. According to Fitch Senior Director Patty Bach, 'Servicer advances on hurricane-affected properties have been on the rise since September, so the repercussions of Hurricane Katrina, Rita and Wilma are likely to be reflected in Fitch's November data.'"

"Fitch's delinquent loan index includes loans 60 or more days delinquent. A loan reported 60-days delinquent in October has a paid-to-date of July, therefore if payments ceased immediately after Hurricane Katrina, a loan would first appear as 60 days delinquent in November (with a paid to date of August)."

"By property type, multifamily properties represent 31.3% by balance of Fitch's delinquent index, followed by office properties at 18.9%, retail properties at 15.5% and hotel properties at 14.7%. While multifamily and office delinquencies rose dramatically over the first half of the year, third quarter showed some improvement."


At 6:07 PM, Blogger Chip said...

I think that the current risk to the value of commercial real estate and related debt therefor is one of the most underreported factors in our current economic stress. My bet is that it will not receive headlines of any sort until after the Christmas buying season. In other words, the mainstream media almost always knows what is really going on, chooses regularly and largely to ignore what it wishes to, and only deals with the obvious when it is a moment away from being totally too late.

And that will be the demise of the mega-media. The Net has set us free, at least until despots try to bottle it up. But, just like the resistance in Europe constructed radio sets that they operated in barns, the Net cat is pretty much out of the bag. Hurray for that. Wish I could be so happy about the future of our economy.


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