The Foreclosure Report

"Appears To Be No End" To Denver Defaults

The Rocky Mountain News reports from Colorado. "Prompted by local business leaders' concerns over the area's real estate market, economist Patty Silverstein has issued a report that says Denver's high foreclosure rate will continue, somewhat abated, into 2007. 'A lot of conditions are improving, but we're not out of the woods yet,' Silverstein said."

"Residential foreclosures in metro Denver are on pace to hit a record high in 2006 of about 19,200. Through the third quarter, 14,132 foreclosure cases were opened in the seven-county region, a 34.2 percent increase over the January-September period in 2005."

"What's happening, Silverstein said, is a longer lag between the negative job-loss news and the foreclosures, when compared with Denver's problems in the 1980s. During the last great foreclosure boom, it was roughly two years between Colorado's job losses and its high foreclosures, Silverstein said. Colorado's recent job- loss peak, in 2002 and 2003, is now three to four years in the past."

"'Given the severity of it and the slow growth since then, we've had a longer lag,' she said."

"New or recently popular mortgage products also have played a role, Silverstein notes, and ARMs represent a disproportionate share of Colorado foreclosures: In the second quarter of 2006, 52.5 percent of the loans in foreclosure in Colorado were ARMs, compared with 35.7 percent nationally."

The Denver Post. "Despite solid growth in jobs, incomes and population, metro Denver's foreclosure rate is on track to hit 1.7 percent of all homes this year, according to an analysis. That rate is a midpoint between last year's 1.3 percent and a record 2.1 percent set in 1988, when an oil bust drove up unemployment levels and more people were leaving the metro area than moving in."

"The high foreclosure rate in Colorado, which has led the nation for the past seven months, is part of a downward trend in the overall housing market."

"Builder incentives and price cuts are putting pressure on the median prices of existing single-family homes, which fell 2.2 percent in the metro area and 2.5 percent nationally year-over- year for September. There were 31,450 unsold properties in the metro Denver market in September, compared with 27,248 a year earlier."

"For the past five years, home prices haven't appreciated in a "foreclosure belt" stretching from Weld to Adams to Arapahoe County, said Lou Barnes, a mortgage banker in Boulder. Overbuilding has dampened price appreciation, which has contributed to high foreclosures in those areas because homeowners have less equity and aren't able to sell quickly, Barnes said."

"Economist Patricia Silverstein links the genesis of the current foreclosure cycle to the loss of 61,200 metro-area jobs in 2002 and 2003. Many workers had difficulty replacing the incomes they lost in the downturn and appear to have turned to higher-risk mortgage products such as no-money-down and adjustable-rate loans to stretch their finances."

"Broker Phil Heter, whose company only sells foreclosed homes on behalf of lenders and Fannie Mae, said that while there are huge differences between now and 1989, there appears to be no end to the number of foreclosed homes hitting the Denver-area market."

"'We were busy before, but it was like they just opened the faucet wide open 90 days ago,' Heter said."

posted by Ben Jones @ 4:05 PM